How Often do Teams Win from Behind (Premier League)

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    Another football stats post today, this time I will be looking at how often teams win from behind in the English premier League (I will be looking at the last 5 seasons form 2016 / 2017 onwards).

    how often do teams win from behind article featured image

    To clarify what I am looking at here, I will be classing a “win from behind” as any fixture where one team (either home or away) has been loosing at any point in the game and has then gone on to finish up winning the game. Also, for the purposes of this post, I am not taking into account the number of goals behind the team winning form behind was at any given point in the fixture (so, simply being 1 goal behind then winning would count the same as been multiple goals behind then winning in the same way).

    How Often do Teams Win from Behind in the Premier League?

    To start this section off I am going answer the main question of this post, how often do teams in the English Premier League win form behind?

    As usual, with these football stats related posts, I will be making use of my own SQL Server based football stats database to both find, process and deliver the underlying data. This begins below where I have listed the number of games per season and what percentage of them are home team wins from behind, away team wins from behind and then the total number of games where either team has won from behind.

    LeagueSeasonNo_FixturesHome_WinsAway_WinsDrawsHome_WFB%_Home_WFBAway_WFB%_Away_WFBTotal_WFB%_Total_WFB
    Premier League2020/202138014415383246.31338.685715
    Premier League2019/202038017211692348.94133.424712.36
    Premier League2018/201938018112871277.1164.214311.31
    Premier League2017/201838017310899266.841954511.84
    Premier League2016/201738018710984277.11954612.1

    Table Key: WFB = Wins From Behind

    As can be seen using the data in the table above (over the last 5 seasons of the English Premier League), we see that teams go on to win form behind approximately 12% to 15% of the time overall (this equates to an average of 47.6 games been won from behind per season). Interestingly, this data also shows us that home teams tend to win form behind slightly more often than away teams do with an average of 27.6 games won from behind (per season) over the last 5 seasons versus away teams averaging just 20 wins form behind (per season) over the same time frame.

    Moving on and in the next section I will be looking at some stats which are more focused upon the individual teams which have participated in the Premier themselves over this same time frame.

    Which Premier League Teams Win from Behind the Most?

    With the previous section already addressing the main stats for the entire Premier League itself, here I am going to focus more on the win form behind stats for the individual teams which make up the Premier League during any given season. This starts off below where I have created such stats on a per team / per season basis:

    Table Key: WFB = Wins From Behind

    Moving on and in the next table I have combined these stats for all eligible teams across the last 5 Premier League seasons (2016/2017 to 2020/2021):

    Team_NameTotal_GamesTotal_Wins%_Win_RateTotal_WFB%_Total_WFBTotal_Home_GamesHome_WFB%_Home_WFBTotal_Away_GamesAway_WFB%_Away_WFB
    Liverpool15210569.071811.84761013.1576810.52
    Hull City38923.68410.5219421.051900
    Wolverhampton Wanderers763140.7879.213837.8938410.52
    Tottenham Hotspur1528857.89149.217679.217679.21
    Arsenal1527750.65138.55761114.477622.63
    Cardiff City381026.3137.8919315.781900
    Chelsea1529260.52117.237656.577667.89
    Crystal Palace1524831.57106.577633.947679.21
    Manchester United1528052.63106.577679.217633.94
    Swansea City762026.3156.5738410.523812.63
    AFC Bournemouth1524529.695.927679.217622.63
    Manchester City15211374.3495.927656.577645.26
    Leicester City1525737.595.927667.897633.94
    Watford1524428.9485.267667.897622.63
    Fulham38718.4225.2619210.521900
    Everton1525838.1585.267667.897622.63
    Aston Villa38923.6825.2619210.521900
    Newcastle United1143530.765.265758.775711.75
    Sheffield United381436.8425.261915.261915.26
    West Ham United1524730.9285.267656.577633.94
    Southampton1524328.2885.267645.267645.26
    Burnley1525133.5563.947633.947633.94
    West Bromwich Albion761823.6833.943825.263812.63
    Brighton & Hove Albion1142723.6832.635723.55711.75
    Sunderland38615.7812.6319001915.26
    Stoke City761823.6822.633812.633812.63
    Norwich City38513.150019001900
    Huddersfield Town761215.780038003800
    Middlesbrough38513.150019001900

    Table Key: WFB = Wins From Behind

    Notice above that when we look over the last 5 full Premier League seasons we see that Liverpool has the highest rate of wins from behind overall at 12.63% of all eligible games played. Looking at home and away specific stats and we see that Hull City has the highest rate of wins from behind whilst playing at home at 21.05% and Manchester United has the highest rate of wins from behind whilst playing away games at 12.63%.

    Another interesting point I wanted to highlight from the above data is how much more likely a comeback is when playing at home than it is is whilst playing away. In the above sample set of data (from 16/17 to 20/21) we saw 6 teams winning from behind at a rate of 10% or higher, a statistic which falls to just 3 teams above 10% when looking at away wins form behind (and on top of this a lower average win rate as well).

    Conclusion

    One of the interesting (and perhaps easy to overlook) angles to consider when looking at win from behind stats is that a) stronger teams might actually have less opportunity to win form behind and b) weaker teams might have less ability to recover whilst behind (but, of course, much more opportunity given weaker teams will loose more often). As such, when looking at wins from behind, remember it is a statistic which requires some careful thought as to what you might actually want to get from it!

    And Finally…

    I hope you have found this article interesting, I like to piece together such data and break away from the hum-drum (and quite frankly boring) football stats you see littered across the web. Digging deeper into stats such as those mentioned above can also help in understanding teams and leagues much better in terms of their performance, in turn this knowledge can then used to help develop successful football trading strategies (such as those discussed in my football trading strategies article).

    If you are interested in building up you own, professional standard, football stats database and in-turn learning the skills needed to query it and develop such stats for yourself, please check out my detailed eBook course: Supercharge Your Football Betting Stats!

    Furthermore, if you are looking for detailed football data (including in-game events data for goals etc.) then be sure to take a look at my Pro-Data football data service. With Pro-Data you can gain access to highly detailed football data and stats which is updated every day for a simple, one-off annual fee. Pro-Data also comes with a 14 day risk-free money back guarantee meaning it is definitely worth a look if you are interested in pursuing more advanced football stats for yourself!

    Disclaimer

    All of the above data is contained within my own (private) football stats database, a database in which I make every reasonable effort possible to ensure is correct and accurate. This database is built with and regularly updated form a reliable 3rd party data source with my own verification checks along the way to help ensure maximum accuracy.

    Having said this, please use this data for entertainment purposes only, do not use or re-produce in a commercial context and use fully at you own risk!

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