A quick post today looking at the both teams to score statistic (BTTS) and how different leagues have different characteristics when it comes to BTTS. As a trader it can be easy to overlook BTTS statistics however, I personally have found them very useful in helping to model how high or low scoring a game might be.
As I always like to point out looking at statistics over a shot time frame (say the last 5 games) is often of little use in finding any meaningful statistical edge, instead I prefer to call on my football stats database and built more advanced queries going back over several seasons and look for more unusual insights gained from the data.
The Best Leagues for BTTS
To start with I am going to look at the main European leagues over the last 10 full seasons (08/09 to 17/18) to see how BTTS statistics differ between them:
As can be seen above most teams have BTTS rates around 50% or so with the Greek Super League being the notable exception at approx 41%! As this is data over 10 seasons and included over 50k games it would be safe to assume we will see a BTTS every other game or so on average.
BTTS and Draws
Another interesting statistic is how often BTTS and draws coincide, obviously these draws would need to be 1-1 or higher given a 0-0 would not trigger BTTS. In the table below I have looked at the number of BTTS games per league (again over the same 10 seasons) where the games have ended in a non 0-0 draw:
When we consider the long term chance of a 0-0 draw is around 5% to 10% these figures don’t really surprise much! The biggest take away for me is that this, along with many other football stats I uncover appear to be very consistent over the long term which can prove very useful when building trading stargates!
BTTS Results per Team
Some other interesting stats appear whilst looking at the BTTS percentage on a per team level rather than the league as a whole (again looking across all 10 full seasons). Basically what I have done here is tally up all games up per team, counted those which have ended up BTTS and finally worked out the percentage rate of these BTTS games.
As can be seen in the results below in both there is a huge difference in the percentage BTTS rate for the top 20 and bottom 20 teams. Whilst the leagues overall produce a consistent BTTS rate teams on an individual basis certainly do not:
Top 20 teams:
Bottom 20 Teams:
And that's all for today, sorry its a little short but now we’re into the summer break I’m building up several projects including an upgrade to my stats database which should allow me to produce some really cool stats ready for next season!