Just a quick post today but recently I have been working more on developing my stats database and looking at less mainstream stats. Late goals are one such metric which have caught my attention given It often (still) surprises me, for example, how high the draw might be priced with the game a draw at the 70 minute mark.
Naturally no one knows what will happen next and goals can sometimes come from nowhere and catch everyone out, the question I’m really asking is are the Betfair markets leaving money on the table here.
Of course, you don't need me to tell you late goal trading has a lot of potential but how prevalent are these late goals given there are relatively few stats published on this and for which leagues do we see the most late goals.
The data I am using for the below stats is the last full 5 seasons (2014/2015 to 2018/2019) for the following main European leagues:
English Premier League
Spanish La Liga
Spanish La Liga 2
German 2. Bundesliga
French Ligue 1
French Ligue 2
Italian Serie A
Italian Serie B
Austrian Tipco Bundesliga
So, lets get started...
70th Minute Onwards
I think 70 minutes is a good place to start with this, as I mentioned earlier I often follow a match at the 70 minute mark to be surprised at how high the draw is priced with the game currently at a draw. In other words, in such situations is the market somewhat too optimistic of another goal being scored and should it be?
Firstly, lets look at the number of goals per league over the last 5 full seasons, I will also add into the below table the number of these goals scored on or after the 70th minute and the percentage rate:
As can be seen above the most obvious thing (to me at least) is how consistent the rate of 70 min+ goals are across all of the European leagues. At a difference of just over 2% between the best and worst performing leagues with 20+ minutes to go this metric is very similar!
In all fairness since most games go a few minutes past 90 there is arguably still plenty of football to play at the 70 minute mark. This is backed up by the data as we, on average about 1 in every 5 goals after this time mark.
80th Minute Onwards
At 80 minutes we usually have less than 15 minutes of time left in a game accounting for any injury time, as such we should expect to see fewer goals than at the 70 minute mark.
The table below is based on the first table for 70 minutes but this time focuses on goals scored on or after the 80th minute mark.
Again, like with the 70 min+ table it is noticeable how similar each league is in terms of the percentage of goals scored after this time mark. In fact with the best and worst performing leagues being at approx 1.5% difference leagues are even more consistent with each other at this level.
90th Minute Onwards
At 90 Minutes we are in the dying stages of the game, a this point a goal can be almost impossible to counter and devastating for one team when a win turns into a draw or a draw into a loss.
As in the two prior tables, below I have listed all games again along with the percentage of goals scored on or after the 90th minute.
Again, as with the 70+ and 80+ minute goals the percentage of 90min+ goals is very consistent across all of the aforementioned leagues. At around 6% on average we’re looking at a 90+ minute goal every 19 games or so.
This is just a brief glance into the late goals market for today, I have some other related analysis which I want to package up and share here once I get a bit more time to do so.